| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.5% | 48% | +4.8% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 51.1% | 48.9% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 51.2% | 48.8% |
| logistic | 50.6% | 49.4% |
| Braden Shick | Mees Rottgering | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1564 | 1555 |
| Surface Elo | 1564 | 1555 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | H | Ozan Baris | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Mees Rottgering | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Ozan Baris | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Patrick Maloney | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Patrick Maloney | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Edward Winter | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Andy Andrade | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Braden Shick | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Edward Winter | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Nishesh Basavareddy | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Braden Shick | 0 - 2 | Mees Rottgering |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.70 | 58.8% | 30 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.10 | 47.6% | 30 Sep 06:15 |