| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 70.4% | 79% | -8.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 37.9% | 62.1% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 21.0% | 78.9% |
| logistic | 39.6% | 60.4% |
| Mathys Erhard | Valentin Royer | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1544 | 1719 |
| Surface Elo | 1544 | 1719 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | H | Leo Raquillet | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Valentin Royer | 0 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Rocco, Lorenzo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Oct | H | Oliver Tarvet | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Alberto Barroso Campos | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Stefano Travaglia | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Mathys Erhard | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | A | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Botic Van De Zandschulp | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Mathys Erhard | 0 - 2 | Valentin Royer |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.27 | 78.7% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.55 | 28.2% | 13 Oct 06:15 |