OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-09

⚽ Primeira Liga · Friday 09 October 2026, 20:15 UTC · finished

Sp Braga 2.00 1 - 3 2.20 Sp Lisbon

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
No prediction run for this match yet.

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Draw	Away
–

Inputs the models saw

	Sp Braga	Sp Lisbon
Elo (pre-match)	1674	1843
Surface Elo	1674	1843
Form, last 5 (PPG)	2.00	2.20
Form trend	0.40	0.60
Season points per game	1.83	2.14
Season goals for / game	1.17	2.43
Season goals against / game	0.83	1.14
Rest days	19	20
Head-to-head (last 10)	1 W	4 W · 5 D

Sp Braga: last 5

09 Oct	H	Sporting	1 - 3	L
20 Sep	A	Santa Clara	0 - 0	D
20 Sep	A	Santa Clara	0 - 0	D
14 Sep	H	Estoril	1 - 0	W
10 Sep	A	Estrela	1 - 2	L

Sp Lisbon: last 5

19 Sep	H	Arouca	2 - 2	D
13 Sep	A	Famalicao	1 - 1	D
05 Sep	H	Nacional	2 - 0	W
28 Aug	A	Rio Ave	4 - 0	W
22 Aug	H	Alverca	3 - 1	W

Head to head

07 Mar 2026	Sp Braga	2 - 2	Sp Lisbon
05 Oct 2025	Sp Lisbon	1 - 1	Sp Braga
07 Apr 2025	Sp Lisbon	1 - 1	Sp Braga
10 Nov 2024	Sp Braga	2 - 4	Sp Lisbon
11 Feb 2024	Sp Lisbon	5 - 0	Sp Braga
03 Sep 2023	Sp Braga	1 - 1	Sp Lisbon
01 Feb 2023	Sp Lisbon	5 - 0	Sp Braga
07 Aug 2022	Sp Braga	3 - 3	Sp Lisbon
22 Jan 2022	Sp Lisbon	1 - 2	Sp Braga
14 Aug 2021	Sp Braga	1 - 2	Sp Lisbon

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
Bet365	1X2	away	2.50	40.0%	09 Oct 20:15
Bet365	1X2	draw	3.00	33.3%	09 Oct 20:15
Bet365	1X2	home	2.85	35.1%	09 Oct 20:15
Bet365	O/U 2.5	over	2.25	44.4%	09 Oct 20:15
Bet365	O/U 2.5	under	1.62	61.7%	09 Oct 20:15

Generated 2026-10-30 17:07 UTC