| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 58.3% | 54% | +3.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 48.3% | 35.9% |
| xgboost | 59.6% | 39.3% |
| logistic | 56.8% | 43.2% |
| Washington Capitals | Florida Panthers | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1558 | 1509 |
| Surface Elo | 1558 | 1509 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 0.57 | 0.56 |
| Season goals for / game | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.43 | 2.94 |
| Rest days | 3 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 3 W · 0 D |
| 04 Nov | H | Dallas Stars | 5 - 6 | L |
| 01 Nov | H | Minnesota Wild | 1 - 5 | L |
| 30 Oct | A | Nashville Predators | 4 - 3 | W |
| 28 Oct | H | Philadelphia Flyers | 5 - 2 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Buffalo Sabres | 4 - 3 | W |
| 05 Nov | H | Chicago Blackhawks | 5 - 3 | W |
| 03 Nov | H | Detroit Red Wings | 3 - 5 | L |
| 30 Oct | H | Winnipeg Jets | 5 - 2 | W |
| 28 Oct | A | Winnipeg Jets | 5 - 1 | W |
| 25 Oct | A | Chicago Blackhawks | 3 - 2 | W |
| 18 Jan 2026 | Washington Capitals | 2 - 5 | Florida Panthers |
| 30 Dec 2025 | Florida Panthers | 5 - 3 | Washington Capitals |
| 14 Nov 2025 | Florida Panthers | 6 - 3 | Washington Capitals |
| 22 Mar 2025 | Washington Capitals | 6 - 3 | Florida Panthers |
| 05 Feb 2025 | Washington Capitals | 6 - 3 | Florida Panthers |
| 26 Nov 2024 | Florida Panthers | 1 - 4 | Washington Capitals |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | home | 1.84 | 54.3% | 07 Nov 14:20 |
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | away | 2.08 | 48.1% | 07 Nov 14:20 |