OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-09-30
⚽ England National League · Wednesday 30 September 2026, 18:45 UTC · finished
Eastleigh 0.80 1 - 1 2.00 Southend
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Away win 50.0%56%-6.5%✗ miss
DCDraw or away 74.7%83%-8.1%✓ hit
DNBAway (DNB) 65.8%75%-8.8%void
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 68.4%62%+6.7%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 60.9%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson25.6%25.2%49.2%
xgboost29.6%26.0%44.4%
logistic20.2%25.6%54.3%
Inputs the models saw
EastleighSouthend
Elo (pre-match)14051558
Surface Elo14051558
Form, last 5 (PPG)0.802.00
Form trend-0.200.40
Season points per game1.501.50
Season goals for / game1.004.00
Season goals against / game2.002.50
Rest days44
Head-to-head (last 10)3 W6 W · 1 D
Eastleigh: last 5
26 SepAHarrogate1 - 4L
26 SepAHarrogate1 - 4L
19 SepHCarlisle1 - 0W
19 SepHCarlisle1 - 0W
15 SepASutton1 - 2L
Southend: last 5
26 SepHBarrow2 - 4L
26 SepHBarrow2 - 4L
19 SepAGateshead6 - 1W
19 SepAGateshead6 - 1W
15 SepHTamworth3 - 1W
Head to head
20 Jan 2026Southend4 - 1Eastleigh
24 Sep 2025Eastleigh2 - 1Southend
22 Mar 2025Eastleigh1 - 2Southend
10 Sep 2024Southend2 - 0Eastleigh
13 Jan 2024Eastleigh0 - 1Southend
25 Aug 2023Southend2 - 0Eastleigh
28 Jan 2023Southend1 - 3Eastleigh
27 Aug 2022Eastleigh2 - 1Southend
22 Feb 2022Eastleigh1 - 1Southend
05 Oct 2021Southend1 - 0Eastleigh
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away1.7756.5%29 Sep 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.8026.3%29 Sep 06:15
SportyBet1X2home3.9025.6%29 Sep 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.6261.7%29 Sep 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.2045.5%29 Sep 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 19:27 UTC