OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-11
⚽ Primeira Liga · Sunday 11 October 2026, 19:30 UTC · finished
Arouca 1.00 1 - 0 1.60 Estrela
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 51.8%48%+3.8%✓ hit
DCHome or away 77.0%76%+0.9%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 67.9%67%+1.4%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 58.8%53%+6.0%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 56.9%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson51.9%22.7%25.4%
xgboost49.2%25.1%25.7%
logistic49.7%26.7%23.7%
Inputs the models saw
AroucaEstrela
Elo (pre-match)15661476
Surface Elo15661476
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.001.60
Form trend0.100.60
Season points per game1.571.43
Season goals for / game1.432.00
Season goals against / game1.002.00
Rest days2221
Head-to-head (last 10)3 W2 W · 1 D
Arouca: last 5
19 SepASporting2 - 2D
19 SepASp Lisbon2 - 2D
13 SepHSanta Clara1 - 2L
07 SepAEstoril0 - 0D
29 AugHMaritimo2 - 1W
Estrela: last 5
11 OctAUD Sousense3 - 1W
04 OctAAD Castro Daire0 - 3L
27 SepHCD Cinfaes2 - 2D
20 SepHAcademico Viseu0 - 2L
20 SepHAcademico Viseu0 - 2L
Head to head
19 Apr 2026Arouca1 - 0Estrela
07 Dec 2025Estrela3 - 1Arouca
19 Apr 2025Arouca1 - 0Estrela
09 Dec 2024Estrela2 - 1Arouca
05 May 2024Arouca0 - 0Estrela
28 Dec 2023Estrela1 - 4Arouca
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away3.5028.6%11 Oct 20:30
Bet3651X2draw3.3030.3%11 Oct 20:30
Bet3651X2home2.0548.8%11 Oct 20:30
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.8354.6%11 Oct 20:30
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.0349.3%11 Oct 20:30
SportyBet1X2away3.6327.6%11 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.5528.2%11 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.1147.4%11 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.8753.5%11 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.9850.5%11 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 18:22 UTC