| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 69.5% | 84% | -14.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 65.8% | 34.2% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 82.8% | 17.2% |
| logistic | 66.4% | 33.6% |
| Thiago Seyboth Wild | Matias Soto | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1735 | 1554 |
| Surface Elo | 1735 | 1554 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 29 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | A | Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Lautaro Midon | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Murkel Dellien | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Matias Soto | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Thiago Seyboth Wild | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | H | Lautaro Midon | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Lautaro Midon | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | H | Vitaliy Sachko | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | Marvin Moeller | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Matias Soto | 0 - 2 | Thiago Seyboth Wild |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.45 | 22.5% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.18 | 84.8% | 06 Oct 06:15 |