| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 65.2% | 22% | +42.9% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Draw or away | 88.1% | 45% | +43.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 84.5% | 28% | +56.3% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.0% | 71% | -16.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.2% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 5.5% | 14.6% | 80.0% |
| xgboost | 22.2% | 22.7% | 55.1% |
| logistic | 7.6% | 19.8% | 72.6% |
| AFC Wimbledon | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1412 | 1947 |
| Surface Elo | 1412 | 1947 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 24 Oct | H | Wycombe | 1 - 1 | D |
| 24 Oct | H | Wycombe | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 Oct | H | Mansfield | 0 - 3 | L |
| 20 Oct | H | Mansfield | 0 - 3 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Sheffield Weds | 0 - 5 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Everton | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Everton | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Oct | A | Bayern München | 2 - 2 | D |
| 18 Oct | A | Nottingham Forest | 1 - 0 | W |
| 18 Oct | A | Nottingham Forest | 1 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.00 | 20.0% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.60 | 21.7% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.53 | 65.4% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.42 | 70.4% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.80 | 35.7% | 27 Oct 06:15 |