| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 71.5% | 68% | +3.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 66.8% | 33.2% |
| logistic | 82.4% | 17.6% |
| markov | abstained: no serve/return ratings for this match | |
| De Marchi, Andrea | Marcello Serafini | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1560 | 1441 |
| Surface Elo | 1560 | 1441 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.40 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.70 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.60 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 605 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 04 Nov | H | Primucci, Leonardo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Oct | H | Alvarez Valdes, Luis Carlos | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Oct | A | Branko Djuric | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Massellani, Simone | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Oct | A | Federico Arnaboldi | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Mar | A | Chris Rodesch | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Mar | A | Khumoyun Sultanov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 02 Sep | H | Moez Echargui | 1 - 2 | L |
| 02 Sep | A | Gabriele Vulpitta | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Aug | A | Luka Mikrut | 0 - 1 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.50 | 40.0% | 05 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.47 | 68.0% | 05 Nov 06:15 |