| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 60.4% | 59% | +1.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 39.3% | 60.6% |
| logistic | 42.6% | 57.4% |
| markov | abstained: no serve/return ratings for this match | |
| Sebastian Dominko | Daniel Masur | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1491 | 1604 |
| Surface Elo | 1491 | 1604 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| Rest days | 11 | 16 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 30 Sep | H | Sebastian Gima | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | A | Stepan Baum | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Rudolf Molleker | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | H | Marko Bekeni | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Sep | A | Petr Michnev | 2 - 1 | W |
| 25 Sep | A | Murphy Cassone | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Sep | A | Matteo Martineau | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Moez Echargui | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Maxime Janvier | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Murphy Cassone | 1 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.69 | 59.2% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.10 | 47.6% | 11 Oct 06:15 |