| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 60.4% | 71% | -10.5% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 44.6% | 55.4% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 33.7% | 66.3% |
| logistic | 36.5% | 63.5% |
| Svyatoslav Gulin | Elmer Moller | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1566 | 1719 |
| Surface Elo | 1566 | 1719 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 2.10 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.60 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 23 Oct | A | Andrea Pellegrino | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Oct | A | Andrej Martin | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Patrick Schoen | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Patrick Schoen | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Alexander Ritschard | 0 - 2 | L |
| 23 Oct | H | Henrique Rocha | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Oct | A | Max Alcala Gurri | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Tristan Boyer | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Svyatoslav Gulin | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Henrique Rocha | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Elmer Moller | 1 - 2 | Svyatoslav Gulin |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.41 | 70.9% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.80 | 35.7% | 24 Oct 06:15 |