| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 65.8% | 54% | +12.0% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 87.5% | 83% | +4.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 82.5% | 74% | +8.4% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.1% | 54% | +11.0% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.4% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 62.3% | 19.6% | 18.1% |
| xgboost | 48.9% | 26.2% | 24.8% |
| logistic | 46.9% | 27.9% | 25.2% |
| Verona | Vicenza | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1450 | 1407 |
| Surface Elo | 1450 | 1407 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 8 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 11 Sep | A | Benevento | 1 - 3 | L |
| 06 Sep | H | Arezzo | 5 - 0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | Padova | 1 - 1 | D |
| 23 Aug | H | Ascoli | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 May | H | Roma | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Juve Stabia | 1 - 1 | D |
| 06 Sep | A | Virtus Entella | 2 - 2 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | Avellino | 0 - 3 | L |
| 21 Aug | H | Catanzaro | 3 - 2 | W |
| 06 May | A | Alessandria | 1 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 4.50 | 22.2% | 20 Sep 14:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.30 | 30.3% | 20 Sep 14:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.81 | 55.2% | 20 Sep 14:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.95 | 51.3% | 20 Sep 14:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.85 | 54.0% | 20 Sep 14:00 |