| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 46.4% | 44% | +1.9% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 75.1% | 75% | -0.0% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 59.7% | 63% | -3.0% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.9% | 57% | -3.2% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 49.1% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 38.8% | 27.7% | 33.5% |
| xgboost | 44.9% | 26.6% | 28.5% |
| logistic | 44.1% | 27.9% | 27.9% |
| Virtus Entella | Mantova | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1405 | 1487 |
| Surface Elo | 1405 | 1487 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.67 | 1.67 |
| Rest days | 7 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 17 Oct | A | Padova | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Padova | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Vicenza | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Juve Stabia | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Juve Stabia | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | Palermo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Palermo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Catanzaro | 3 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Catanzaro | 3 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Pisa | 2 - 2 | D |
| 06 Apr 2026 | Mantova | 1 - 0 | Virtus Entella |
| 14 Sep 2025 | Virtus Entella | 1 - 0 | Mantova |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.20 | 31.2% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.25 | 30.8% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.30 | 43.5% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.00 | 50.0% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.75 | 57.1% | 23 Oct 06:15 |