OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-11-08
⚽ Netherlands Eredivisie · Sunday 08 November 2026, 15:45 UTC · finished
AZ Alkmaar 0.80 4 - 3 1.40 Groningen
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 57.4%65%-8.0%✓ hit
DCHome or draw 80.0%86%-6.5%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 73.4%82%-8.4%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 58.6%69%-10.8%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 59.9%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson55.8%22.8%21.4%
xgboost52.6%25.3%22.1%
logistic62.7%21.7%15.6%
Inputs the models saw
AZ AlkmaarGroningen
Elo (pre-match)16171537
Surface Elo16171537
Form, last 5 (PPG)0.801.40
Form trend0.600.80
Season points per game0.801.00
Season goals for / game0.602.75
Season goals against / game1.402.75
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)5 W3 W · 2 D
AZ Alkmaar: last 5
06 NovHAlmere City1 - 3L
05 NovHJuventus1 - 2L
31 OctAAjax0 - 1L
31 OctAAjax0 - 1L
30 OctARoda JC Kerkrade1 - 2L
Groningen: last 5
01 NovHSparta Rotterdam2 - 3L
01 NovHSparta Rotterdam2 - 3L
29 OctHFC Emmen0 - 2L
25 OctANijmegen2 - 2D
25 OctANijmegen2 - 2D
Head to head
22 Mar 2026Groningen3 - 0AZ Alkmaar
10 Aug 2025AZ Alkmaar4 - 1Groningen
11 May 2025AZ Alkmaar3 - 0Groningen
25 Aug 2024Groningen0 - 0AZ Alkmaar
11 Mar 2023AZ Alkmaar1 - 0Groningen
01 Oct 2022Groningen1 - 4AZ Alkmaar
21 Dec 2021AZ Alkmaar1 - 0Groningen
24 Oct 2021Groningen2 - 0AZ Alkmaar
13 May 2021Groningen0 - 0AZ Alkmaar
06 Dec 2020AZ Alkmaar1 - 2Groningen
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away5.3418.7%06 Nov 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.7421.1%06 Nov 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.5365.4%06 Nov 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.4469.4%06 Nov 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.8035.7%06 Nov 06:15
Generated 2026-11-12 22:02 UTC