| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 57.0% | 60% | -2.9% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 82.8% | 84% | -1.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 76.3% | 78% | -1.9% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.7% | 62% | -5.2% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 52.2% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 53.1% | 26.2% | 20.6% |
| xgboost | 68.4% | 18.3% | 13.3% |
| logistic | 58.5% | 23.2% | 18.2% |
| Freiburg | Schalke 04 | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1666 | 1590 |
| Surface Elo | 1666 | 1590 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 2.50 | 1.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 3.00 | 0.75 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 22 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 6 W | 2 W · 2 D |
| 19 Sep | A | Eintracht Frankfurt | 2 - 2 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 - 0 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Paderborn | 1 - 0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | Werder Bremen | 4 - 1 | W |
| 16 May | H | RB Leipzig | 4 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Austria Lustenau | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | A | RW Oberhausen | 5 - 2 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Elversberg | 0 - 0 | D |
| 11 Sep | A | Union Berlin | 3 - 1 | W |
| 05 Sep | H | Bayern München | 0 - 0 | D |
| 23 Apr 2023 | Freiburg | 4 - 0 | Schalke 04 |
| 30 Oct 2022 | Schalke 04 | 0 - 2 | Freiburg |
| 17 Apr 2021 | Freiburg | 4 - 0 | Schalke 04 |
| 16 Dec 2020 | Schalke 04 | 0 - 2 | Freiburg |
| 27 Jun 2020 | Freiburg | 4 - 0 | Schalke 04 |
| 21 Dec 2019 | Schalke 04 | 2 - 2 | Freiburg |
| 16 Feb 2019 | Schalke 04 | 0 - 0 | Freiburg |
| 25 Sep 2018 | Freiburg | 1 - 0 | Schalke 04 |
| 31 Mar 2018 | Schalke 04 | 2 - 0 | Freiburg |
| 04 Nov 2017 | Freiburg | 0 - 1 | Schalke 04 |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 5.25 | 19.1% | 11 Oct 16:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.10 | 24.4% | 11 Oct 16:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.62 | 61.7% | 11 Oct 16:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.57 | 63.7% | 11 Oct 16:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.38 | 42.0% | 11 Oct 16:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.15 | 19.4% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.28 | 23.4% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.69 | 59.2% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.62 | 61.7% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.35 | 42.5% | 11 Oct 06:15 |