| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 74.7% | 79% | -4.7% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 35.3% | 64.7% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 17.0% | 83.0% |
| logistic | 30.4% | 69.6% |
| Samuele Pieri | Carlos Taberner | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1451 | 1676 |
| Surface Elo | 1451 | 1676 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.14 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.75 | 1.57 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.86 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 01 Oct | A | Laurent Lokoli | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Andrej Martin | 1 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Vitaliy Sachko | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Carlos Taberner | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Massimo Giunta | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Elmer Moller | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Samuele Pieri | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Massimo Giunta | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Elmer Moller | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Carlos Taberner | 1 - 2 | Samuele Pieri |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.26 | 79.4% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.65 | 27.4% | 02 Oct 06:15 |