| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 58.7% | 65% | -6.7% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 42.3% | 57.7% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 36.4% | 63.6% |
| logistic | 44.2% | 55.8% |
| Botic Van De Zandschulp | Alex Michelsen | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1845 | 1924 |
| Surface Elo | 1845 | 1924 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 2 | 9 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | A | Alex Michelsen | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | H | Daniel Merida | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Oct | H | Daniel Merida | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Francisco Cerundolo | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | H | Francisco Cerundolo | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Botic Van De Zandschulp | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | A | Carlos Alcaraz | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | H | Carlos Alcaraz | 1 - 2 | L |
| 08 Sep | H | Frances Tiafoe | 2 - 3 | L |
| 06 Sep | H | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 3 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Alex Michelsen | 0 - 2 | Botic Van De Zandschulp |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.53 | 65.4% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.60 | 38.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |