OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-29
⚽ Portugal League Cup · Thursday 29 October 2026, 20:45 UTC · finished
Benfica 2.40 4 - 1 1.40 Gil Vicente
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 69.8%73%-3.1%✓ hit
DCHome or draw 91.0%90%+0.7%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 88.8%88%+1.0%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 54.9%68%-12.9%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 55.4%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson73.0%17.7%9.3%
xgboost70.6%17.9%11.5%
logistic81.4%13.8%4.8%
Inputs the models saw
BenficaGil Vicente
Elo (pre-match)18631553
Surface Elo18631553
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.401.40
Form trend0.00-0.20
Season points per game1.501.50
Season goals for / game1.501.50
Season goals against / game1.501.50
Rest days35
Head-to-head (last 10)9 W1 W · 0 D
Benfica: last 5
26 OctASanta Clara2 - 1W
24 OctAFeirense0 - 0D
22 OctAAC Omonia Nicosia4 - 1W
15 OctHCeltic4 - 1W
12 OctHFC Felgueiras 19321 - 0W
Gil Vicente: last 5
24 OctHPorto0 - 1L
24 OctHPorto0 - 1L
19 OctASp Braga2 - 1W
09 OctAMoreirense1 - 0W
09 OctAMoreirense1 - 0W
Head to head
13 Sep 2026Benfica3 - 1Gil Vicente
02 Mar 2026Gil Vicente1 - 2Benfica
26 Sep 2025Benfica2 - 1Gil Vicente
28 Mar 2025Gil Vicente0 - 3Benfica
28 Sep 2024Benfica5 - 1Gil Vicente
04 Feb 2024Benfica3 - 0Gil Vicente
26 Aug 2023Gil Vicente2 - 3Benfica
29 Apr 2023Gil Vicente0 - 2Benfica
13 Nov 2022Benfica3 - 1Gil Vicente
02 Feb 2022Benfica1 - 2Gil Vicente
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away9.1310.9%29 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw6.2516.0%29 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.3275.8%29 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.4668.5%29 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.8035.7%29 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 14:03 UTC