| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 49.2% | 53% | -4.0% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 75.4% | 80% | -4.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 64.2% | 70% | -5.9% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.9% | 65% | -8.0% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.5% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 53.6% | 24.5% | 21.9% |
| xgboost | 39.4% | 27.0% | 33.6% |
| logistic | 42.9% | 29.4% | 27.7% |
| Leicester | Doncaster | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1464 | 1495 |
| Surface Elo | 1464 | 1495 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | 0.50 | -0.70 |
| Season points per game | 0.50 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 13 Oct | A | Woking | 2 - 2 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Peterborough United | 1 - 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Peterboro | 1 - 3 | L |
| 06 Oct | A | Stevenage | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | H | Fulham | 6 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Burton | 1 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Burton | 1 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Liverpool | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Peterboro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Peterborough United | 2 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.75 | 26.7% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.90 | 25.6% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.90 | 52.6% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.54 | 64.9% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.45 | 40.8% | 16 Oct 06:15 |