| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 56.5% | 68% | -11.0% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 52.4% | 47.6% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 65.0% | 35.0% |
| logistic | 51.2% | 48.8% |
| Lorenzo Carboni | Lorenzo Angelini | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1413 | 1404 |
| Surface Elo | 1413 | 1404 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.20 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.20 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 20 Oct | H | Alexander Chang | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Mackenzie Mcdonald | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Luca Nardi | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Mackenzie Mcdonald | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Oct | A | Federico Iannaccone | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Oct | A | Arthur Bellegy | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Raffaele Ciurnelli | 2 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Kai Wehnelt | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | A | Oleksandr Ovcharenko | 0 - 1 | L |
| 30 Sep | A | Gianluca Cadenasso | 1 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.45 | 40.8% | 22 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.48 | 67.6% | 22 Oct 06:15 |