| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 57.1% | 54% | +3.4% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 82.2% | 81% | +1.4% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 75.6% | 71% | +4.3% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.7% | 64% | +2.0% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.0% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 54.7% | 26.2% | 19.1% |
| xgboost | 58.2% | 17.6% | 24.2% |
| logistic | 65.9% | 22.0% | 12.0% |
| Modena | Reggiana | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1465 | 1366 |
| Surface Elo | 1465 | 1366 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 0.33 |
| Season goals for / game | 4.00 | 0.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 4.00 | 1.67 |
| Rest days | 6 | 168 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 3 W · 0 D |
| 17 Oct | A | Carrarese | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Carrarese | 1 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Verona | 3 - 2 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Verona | 3 - 2 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Empoli | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Pro Vercelli | 1 - 3 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | SEF Torres Sassari | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Vicenza | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | H | Spezia | 0 - 1 | L |
| 27 Sep | A | Perugia | 0 - 1 | L |
| 01 May 2026 | Modena | 2 - 1 | Reggiana |
| 28 Oct 2025 | Reggiana | 1 - 0 | Modena |
| 01 May 2025 | Modena | 2 - 3 | Reggiana |
| 14 Dec 2024 | Reggiana | 0 - 1 | Modena |
| 01 May 2024 | Reggiana | 1 - 0 | Modena |
| 02 Dec 2023 | Modena | 2 - 1 | Reggiana |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.40 | 29.4% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.70 | 27.0% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.86 | 53.8% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.57 | 63.7% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 24 Oct 06:15 |