| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 78.0% | 75% | +2.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 63.4% | 36.6% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 78.4% | 21.5% |
| logistic | 73.7% | 26.3% |
| Alex Michelsen | Yannick Hanfmann | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1903 | 1839 |
| Surface Elo | 1903 | 1839 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.33 | 1.71 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.29 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 1.29 |
| Rest days | 4 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 04 Nov | H | Carlos Alcaraz | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Nov | H | Carlos Alcaraz | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Nov | H | Jiri Lehecka | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Nov | H | Jiri Lehecka | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Oct | H | Arthur Fils | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Nov | A | Benjamin Bonzi | 1 - 2 | L |
| 31 Oct | A | Felix Balshaw | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Oct | H | Jan Lennard Struff | 0 - 2 | L |
| 25 Oct | A | Rinky Hijikata | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Marcos Giron | 2 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.60 | 27.8% | 09 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.31 | 76.3% | 09 Nov 06:15 |