| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 54.6% | 50% | +4.4% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 43.0% | 57.0% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 38.1% | 61.9% |
| logistic | 56.6% | 43.4% |
| Pierluigi Basile | Massimo Giunta | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1494 | 1430 |
| Surface Elo | 1494 | 1430 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.17 | 1.33 |
| Rest days | 4 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | A | Massimo Giunta | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | H | Martin Krumich | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | A | Max Wiskandt | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Oleksandr Ovcharenko | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Martin Krumich | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Alejandro Moro Canas | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Gianluca Cadenasso | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Pierluigi Basile | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Carlos Taberner | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | H | Federico Arnaboldi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Massimo Giunta | 2 - 1 | Pierluigi Basile |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.89 | 52.9% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.85 | 54.0% | 06 Oct 06:15 |