| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 75.3% | 73% | +2.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 63.6% | 36.4% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 86.9% | 13.1% |
| logistic | 83.9% | 16.1% |
| Novak Djokovic | Ugo Humbert | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 2138 | 1780 |
| Surface Elo | 2138 | 1780 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.00 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.50 | 0.75 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.25 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.67 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 19 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 09 Oct | H | Hubert Hurkacz | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | A | Hubert Hurkacz | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Oct | H | Alex De Minaur | 1 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Alex De Minaur | 1 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Daniil Medvedev | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Corentin Moutet | 1 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | A | Corentin Moutet | 1 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | A | Arthur Gea | 1 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | A | Arthur Gea | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Jiri Lehecka | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Jul 2019 | Novak Djokovic | 3 - 0 | Ugo Humbert |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.05 | 32.8% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.40 | 71.4% | 27 Oct 06:15 |