| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 61.2% | 26% | +35.3% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Draw or away | 85.4% | 49% | +36.4% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 79.6% | 33% | +46.6% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.3% | 72% | -25.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 46.9% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 18.6% | 25.8% | 55.6% |
| xgboost | 21.7% | 22.5% | 55.7% |
| logistic | 15.2% | 24.9% | 59.9% |
| Accrington | Sunderland | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1342 | 1684 |
| Surface Elo | 1342 | 1684 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 4 W · 3 D |
| 19 Sep | H | Newport County | 0 - 0 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Newport County | 0 - 0 | D |
| 12 Sep | A | Barnet | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | Crawley Town | 3 - 2 | W |
| 01 Sep | H | Grimsby | 2 - 2 | D |
| 20 Sep | A | Manchester City | 3 - 5 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Arsenal | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Sep | A | Brentford | 1 - 1 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | Fulham | 1 - 0 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | Ipswich | 1 - 2 | L |
| 15 Jan 2022 | Accrington | 1 - 1 | Sunderland |
| 11 Sep 2021 | Sunderland | 2 - 1 | Accrington |
| 24 Apr 2021 | Sunderland | 3 - 3 | Accrington |
| 17 Mar 2021 | Accrington | 0 - 2 | Sunderland |
| 14 Sep 2019 | Accrington | 1 - 3 | Sunderland |
| 03 Apr 2019 | Accrington | 0 - 3 | Sunderland |
| 15 Feb 2019 | Sunderland | 2 - 2 | Accrington |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.90 | 25.6% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.25 | 23.5% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.72 | 58.1% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.40 | 71.4% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.90 | 34.5% | 22 Sep 06:15 |