OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-02

🎾 tennis_atp_china_open · Friday 02 October 2026, 11:00 UTC · scheduled

Hubert Hurkacz 1.80 11:00 2.40 Arthur Gea

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	63.2%	60%	+3.7%

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
poisson	37.0%	35.3%
xgboost	62.3%	37.6%
logistic	60.8%	39.2%
markov	abstained: unknown match format (best_of=0)

Inputs the models saw

	Hubert Hurkacz	Arthur Gea
Elo (pre-match)	1963	1834
Surface Elo	1963	1834
Form, last 5 (PPG)	1.80	2.40
Form trend	0.30	0.30
Season points per game	1.50	1.50
Season goals for / game	1.50	1.50
Season goals against / game	1.50	1.50
Rest days	1	2
Head-to-head (last 10)	0 W	0 W · 0 D

Hubert Hurkacz: last 5

02 Oct	A	Arthur Gea	2 - 1	W
01 Oct	A	Learner Tien	2 - 1	W
01 Oct	H	Learner Tien	2 - 1	W
29 Sep	H	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	0 - 2	L
29 Sep	A	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	0 - 2	L

Arthur Gea: last 5

02 Oct	H	Hubert Hurkacz	1 - 2	L
30 Sep	A	Zhizhen Zhang	2 - 0	W
30 Sep	H	Zhizhen Zhang	2 - 0	W
07 Sep	H	Botic Van De Zandschulp	2 - 3	L
05 Sep	H	Michael Zheng	3 - 2	W

Head to head

02 Oct 2026

Arthur Gea

1 - 2

Hubert Hurkacz

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
1xBet	h2h	Arthur Gea	2.28	43.9%	02 Oct 06:01
1xBet	h2h	Hubert Hurkacz	1.67	59.9%	02 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Arthur Gea	2.30	43.5%	02 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Hubert Hurkacz	1.61	62.1%	02 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Arthur Gea	2.20	45.5%	02 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Hubert Hurkacz	1.67	59.9%	02 Oct 06:01
Betclic (FR)	h2h	Arthur Gea	2.20	45.5%	02 Oct 06:01
Betclic (FR)	h2h	Hubert Hurkacz	1.65	60.6%	02 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Arthur Gea	2.34	42.7%	02 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Hubert Hurkacz	1.73	57.8%	02 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Arthur Gea	2.36	42.4%	02 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Hubert Hurkacz	1.74	57.5%	02 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Arthur Gea	2.30	43.5%	02 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Hubert Hurkacz	1.67	59.9%	02 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Arthur Gea	2.20	45.5%	02 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Hubert Hurkacz	1.65	60.6%	02 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Arthur Gea	2.25	44.4%	02 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Hubert Hurkacz	1.65	60.6%	02 Oct 06:01
GTbets	h2h	Arthur Gea	2.17	46.1%	02 Oct 06:01
GTbets	h2h	Hubert Hurkacz	1.63	61.4%	02 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Arthur Gea	2.28	43.9%	02 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Hubert Hurkacz	1.63	61.4%	02 Oct 06:01
Marathon Bet	h2h	Arthur Gea	2.24	44.6%	02 Oct 06:01
Marathon Bet	h2h	Hubert Hurkacz	1.64	61.0%	02 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Arthur Gea	2.34	42.7%	02 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Hubert Hurkacz	1.73	57.8%	02 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Arthur Gea	2.36	42.4%	02 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Hubert Hurkacz	1.74	57.5%	02 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Arthur Gea	2.20	45.5%	02 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Hubert Hurkacz	1.65	60.6%	02 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Arthur Gea	2.33	42.9%	02 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Hubert Hurkacz	1.67	59.9%	02 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Arthur Gea	2.17	46.1%	02 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Hubert Hurkacz	1.56	64.1%	02 Oct 06:01
SportyBet	1X2	away	2.25	44.4%	02 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	1.68	59.5%	02 Oct 06:15
Tipico	h2h	Arthur Gea	2.25	44.4%	02 Oct 06:01
Tipico	h2h	Hubert Hurkacz	1.57	63.7%	02 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Arthur Gea	2.20	45.5%	02 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Hubert Hurkacz	1.65	60.6%	02 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Arthur Gea	2.28	43.9%	02 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Hubert Hurkacz	1.63	61.4%	02 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Arthur Gea	2.28	43.9%	02 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Hubert Hurkacz	1.63	61.4%	02 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Arthur Gea	2.30	43.5%	02 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Hubert Hurkacz	1.62	61.7%	02 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Arthur Gea	2.25	44.4%	02 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Hubert Hurkacz	1.68	59.5%	02 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Arthur Gea	2.20	45.5%	02 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Hubert Hurkacz	1.64	61.0%	02 Oct 06:01

Generated 2026-10-30 19:22 UTC