| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 53.0% | 47% | +5.6% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Draw or away | 78.4% | 73% | +5.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 69.5% | 63% | +6.5% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.0% | 67% | -9.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.0% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 33.4% | 25.1% | 41.5% |
| xgboost | 19.6% | 19.6% | 60.8% |
| logistic | 16.4% | 26.3% | 57.2% |
| Den Haag | Heerenveen | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1374 | 1580 |
| Surface Elo | 1374 | 1580 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | -0.70 | -0.50 |
| Season points per game | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.67 | 2.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 0.67 |
| Rest days | 7 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 4 W · 4 D |
| 17 Oct | H | PSV Eindhoven | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | PSV Eindhoven | 2 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Telstar | 2 - 2 | D |
| 11 Oct | A | Telstar | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Cambuur | 1 - 1 | D |
| 16 Oct | H | Excelsior | 4 - 0 | W |
| 16 Oct | H | Excelsior | 4 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | A | PSV Eindhoven | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | A | PSV Eindhoven | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Sparta Rotterdam | 4 - 0 | W |
| 06 Mar 2021 | Heerenveen | 3 - 0 | Den Haag |
| 28 Nov 2020 | Den Haag | 1 - 1 | Heerenveen |
| 22 Feb 2020 | Heerenveen | 2 - 2 | Den Haag |
| 03 Nov 2019 | Den Haag | 1 - 1 | Heerenveen |
| 09 Mar 2019 | Den Haag | 2 - 3 | Heerenveen |
| 29 Sep 2018 | Heerenveen | 1 - 1 | Den Haag |
| 17 Apr 2018 | Heerenveen | 2 - 0 | Den Haag |
| 26 Aug 2017 | Den Haag | 1 - 2 | Heerenveen |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.11 | 47.4% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.92 | 25.5% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.32 | 30.1% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.50 | 66.7% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.65 | 37.7% | 23 Oct 06:15 |