| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 69.9% | 76% | -6.4% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 54.6% | 45.4% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 79.4% | 20.5% |
| logistic | 64.1% | 35.9% |
| Lucas Poullain | Tom Paris | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1614 | 1503 |
| Surface Elo | 1614 | 1503 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.80 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.20 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 11 Oct | H | Gijs Brouwer | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Oct | H | Joel Schwaerzler | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Remy Bertola | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Mark Lajal | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Joel Schwaerzler | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Ugo Blanchet | 0 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Yanis Ghazouani Durand | 2 - 1 | W |
| 27 Sep | A | Niels Visker | 0 - 2 | L |
| 25 May | A | Lukas Pokorny | 1 - 2 | L |
| 06 Apr | A | Ilia Simakin | 1 - 2 | L |
| 09 Mar 2026 | Lucas Poullain | 2 - 0 | Tom Paris |
| 03 Feb 2025 | Lucas Poullain | 0 - 2 | Tom Paris |
| 25 Sep 2023 | Lucas Poullain | 2 - 1 | Tom Paris |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.30 | 30.3% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.31 | 76.3% | 12 Oct 06:15 |