| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 44.5% | 34% | +10.4% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 73.4% | 81% | -7.5% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 58.1% | 45% | +13.3% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.0% | 69% | -6.1% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 60.6% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 44.5% | 28.1% | 27.4% |
| xgboost | 35.1% | 29.8% | 35.0% |
| logistic | 33.0% | 23.2% | 43.8% |
| Vitesse | NAC Breda | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1426 | 1436 |
| Surface Elo | 1426 | 1436 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 867 | 139 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 26 Sep | A | Heracles | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | PSV Eindhoven | 3 - 1 | W |
| 19 May | H | Ajax | 2 - 2 | D |
| 12 May | A | Heerenveen | 3 - 1 | W |
| 05 May | A | Utrecht | 0 - 1 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | PSV Eindhoven | 4 - 2 | W |
| 20 Sep | A | Graafschap | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 May | A | AZ Alkmaar | 3 - 3 | D |
| 10 May | H | Heerenveen | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 May | A | Utrecht | 0 - 2 | L |
| 02 Mar 2019 | Vitesse | 4 - 1 | NAC Breda |
| 09 Dec 2018 | NAC Breda | 2 - 1 | Vitesse |
| 07 Apr 2018 | NAC Breda | 1 - 0 | Vitesse |
| 12 Aug 2017 | Vitesse | 4 - 1 | NAC Breda |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.10 | 47.6% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.90 | 25.6% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.00 | 33.3% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.44 | 69.4% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.75 | 36.4% | 03 Oct 06:15 |