| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 55.2% | 61% | -5.6% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 81.7% | 85% | -3.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 74.3% | 79% | -4.9% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.5% | 54% | +6.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 50.4% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 51.8% | 26.5% | 21.6% |
| xgboost | 64.3% | 19.9% | 15.8% |
| logistic | 53.7% | 27.4% | 18.9% |
| Burnley | Charlton | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1522 | 1501 |
| Surface Elo | 1522 | 1501 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.10 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | A | Watford | 4 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Watford | 4 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Preston North End | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Derby | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Derby | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Bristol City | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Bristol City | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Cardiff | 1 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Cardiff | 1 - 3 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Portsmouth | 0 - 0 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.36 | 18.7% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.13 | 24.2% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.66 | 60.2% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.87 | 53.5% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.98 | 50.5% | 13 Oct 06:15 |