| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 55.4% | 57% | -1.1% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 81.6% | 83% | -1.0% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 74.8% | 76% | -0.7% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.8% | 54% | +5.1% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 56.7% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 50.1% | 27.1% | 22.8% |
| xgboost | 58.6% | 26.3% | 15.1% |
| logistic | 57.3% | 25.7% | 16.9% |
| Alverca | Casa Pia | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1516 | 1442 |
| Surface Elo | 1516 | 1442 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 4 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 02 Nov | A | Benfica | 0 - 1 | L |
| 01 Nov | A | Mortagua FC | 0 - 0 | D |
| 25 Oct | H | AD Nogueirense | 3 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Arouca | 0 - 1 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Arouca | 0 - 1 | L |
| 30 Oct | H | Sporting | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Oct | H | Sp Lisbon | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Estrela | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Estrela | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Santa Clara | 0 - 1 | L |
| 12 Apr 2026 | Alverca | 3 - 1 | Casa Pia |
| 29 Nov 2025 | Casa Pia | 0 - 2 | Alverca |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.67 | 21.4% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.85 | 26.0% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.80 | 55.6% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.97 | 50.8% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.87 | 53.5% | 06 Nov 06:15 |