| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 51.5% | 68% | -16.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 57.6% | 27.4% |
| xgboost | 63.6% | 35.2% |
| logistic | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | Philadelphia Flyers | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1559 | 1509 |
| Surface Elo | 1559 | 1509 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 03 Oct | H | Washington Capitals | 3 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | New York Rangers | 1 - 5 | L |
| 03 May | H | Montréal Canadiens | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 May | A | Montréal Canadiens | 1 - 0 | W |
| 29 Apr | H | Montréal Canadiens | 2 - 3 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Carolina Hurricanes | 2 - 3 | L |
| 01 Oct | A | New Jersey Devils | 2 - 3 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Pittsburgh Penguins | 0 - 7 | L |
| 09 May | H | Carolina Hurricanes | 2 - 3 | L |
| 08 May | H | Carolina Hurricanes | 1 - 4 | L |
| 13 Jan 2026 | Philadelphia Flyers | 1 - 5 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| 11 Jan 2026 | Philadelphia Flyers | 2 - 7 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| 25 Nov 2025 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 3 - 0 | Philadelphia Flyers |
| 17 Mar 2025 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 2 - 0 | Philadelphia Flyers |
| 13 Mar 2025 | Philadelphia Flyers | 4 - 3 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| 08 Nov 2024 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 1 - 2 | Philadelphia Flyers |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | home | 1.46 | 68.5% | 05 Oct 18:20 |
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | away | 2.92 | 34.2% | 05 Oct 18:20 |