| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 46.4% | 46% | +0.4% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 75.9% | 77% | -1.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 61.1% | 62% | -0.5% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.6% | 40% | +11.3% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 52.5% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 46.4% | 24.1% | 29.5% |
| logistic | failed: ValueError | ||
| xgboost | failed: ValueError | ||
| Lyon | Rennes | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1744 | 1756 |
| Surface Elo | 1744 | 1756 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 2.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 1.25 |
| Rest days | 6 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 6 W · 0 D |
| 12 Sep | A | Paris FC | 0 - 0 | D |
| 04 Sep | H | Auxerre | 3 - 1 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | Le Havre | 1 - 1 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | Toulouse | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 May | H | Lens | 0 - 4 | L |
| 11 Sep | H | Marseille | 1 - 0 | W |
| 06 Sep | A | Angers | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | Le Mans | 3 - 2 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | Paris Saint Germain | 2 - 2 | D |
| 17 May | A | Marseille | 1 - 3 | L |
| 03 May 2026 | Lyon | 4 - 2 | Rennes |
| 14 Sep 2025 | Rennes | 3 - 1 | Lyon |
| 26 Apr 2025 | Lyon | 4 - 1 | Rennes |
| 18 Aug 2024 | Rennes | 3 - 0 | Lyon |
| 26 Jan 2024 | Lyon | 2 - 3 | Rennes |
| 12 Nov 2023 | Rennes | 0 - 1 | Lyon |
| 09 Apr 2023 | Lyon | 3 - 1 | Rennes |
| 16 Oct 2022 | Rennes | 3 - 2 | Lyon |
| 13 Mar 2022 | Lyon | 2 - 4 | Rennes |
| 07 Nov 2021 | Rennes | 4 - 1 | Lyon |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 3.20 | 31.2% | 19 Sep 19:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.70 | 27.0% | 19 Sep 19:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.10 | 47.6% | 19 Sep 19:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.57 | 63.7% | 19 Sep 19:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.38 | 42.0% | 19 Sep 19:45 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.28 | 30.5% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.88 | 25.8% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.19 | 45.7% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.56 | 64.1% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.50 | 40.0% | 19 Sep 06:16 |