| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 69.4% | 75% | -5.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 28.9% | 71.1% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 29.3% | 70.7% |
| logistic | 44.3% | 55.7% |
| Rinky Hijikata | Andrey Rublev | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1776 | 1902 |
| Surface Elo | 1776 | 1902 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 23 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 25 Sep | A | Andrey Rublev | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Sep | H | Dalibor Svrcina | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | A | Dalibor Svrcina | 2 - 0 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | Felix Auger Aliassime | 1 - 3 | L |
| 26 Aug | A | Benjamin Bonzi | 0 - 2 | L |
| 25 Sep | H | Rinky Hijikata | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Sep | H | Daniel Merida | 1 - 3 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | Otto Virtanen | 3 - 2 | W |
| 18 Aug | H | Nuno Borges | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Aug | H | Pablo Carreno Busta | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Sep 2026 | Andrey Rublev | 2 - 0 | Rinky Hijikata |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.34 | 74.6% | 25 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.40 | 29.4% | 25 Sep 06:15 |