| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 52.4% | 32% | +20.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 62.8% | 37.2% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 21.4% | 78.6% |
| logistic | 61.4% | 38.6% |
| Brandon Nakashima | Ugo Humbert | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1976 | 1833 |
| Surface Elo | 1976 | 1833 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 29 | 46 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 3 W · 0 D |
| 01 Oct | H | Ugo Humbert | 0 - 2 | L |
| 02 Sep | A | Alex Michelsen | 0 - 3 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | Sebastian Baez | 3 - 0 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | Frances Tiafoe | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | Taylor Fritz | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Brandon Nakashima | 2 - 0 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | Michael Zheng | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Aug | A | Daniel Merida | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Jul | A | Ben Shelton | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Jul | A | Andres Martin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct 2026 | Brandon Nakashima | 0 - 2 | Ugo Humbert |
| 28 Oct 2024 | Brandon Nakashima | 1 - 2 | Ugo Humbert |
| 25 Sep 2024 | Brandon Nakashima | 0 - 2 | Ugo Humbert |
| 01 Jul 2024 | Brandon Nakashima | 1 - 3 | Ugo Humbert |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.20 | 31.2% | 30 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.38 | 72.5% | 30 Sep 06:15 |