| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 62.0% | 59% | +2.9% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 67.5% | 32.5% |
| logistic | 62.1% | 37.9% |
| Laurent Lokoli | Samuele Pieri | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1537 | 1430 |
| Surface Elo | 1537 | 1430 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 0.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 29 Sep | A | Pol Martin Tiffon | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Samuele Pieri | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Pol Martin Tiffon | 2 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Daniel Michalski | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | H | Ugo Blanchet | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | H | Andrej Martin | 1 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Vitaliy Sachko | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Carlos Taberner | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Laurent Lokoli | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Laurent Lokoli | 0 - 2 | Samuele Pieri |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.25 | 44.4% | 01 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.59 | 62.9% | 01 Oct 06:15 |