OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-10
⚽ England League One · Saturday 10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC · finished
Doncaster 1.00 1 - 0 1.00 Burton
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 53.3%59%-5.5%✓ hit
DCHome or away 77.1%80%-2.8%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 68.1%77%-9.2%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 55.5%56%-0.4%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 54.6%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson44.9%27.0%28.0%
xgboost59.8%18.3%21.9%
logistic48.1%27.2%24.7%
Inputs the models saw
DoncasterBurton
Elo (pre-match)14821478
Surface Elo14821478
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.001.00
Form trend-0.30-0.10
Season points per game3.001.33
Season goals for / game2.001.33
Season goals against / game0.001.67
Rest days217
Head-to-head (last 10)3 W3 W · 3 D
Doncaster: last 5
06 OctHLiverpool1 - 0W
19 SepAPeterboro2 - 0W
19 SepAPeterborough United2 - 0W
12 SepAAFC Wimbledon0 - 1L
05 SepHPlymouth2 - 3L
Burton: last 5
06 OctAGrimsby0 - 0D
03 OctHHuddersfield1 - 3L
03 OctHHuddersfield1 - 3L
26 SepAPlymouth1 - 0W
26 SepAPlymouth1 - 0W
Head to head
03 Feb 2026Burton1 - 2Doncaster
04 Oct 2025Doncaster1 - 1Burton
23 Apr 2022Doncaster2 - 0Burton
27 Nov 2021Burton2 - 0Doncaster
13 Apr 2021Doncaster0 - 3Burton
19 Dec 2020Burton1 - 3Doncaster
02 Nov 2019Doncaster2 - 2Burton
19 Jan 2019Doncaster2 - 2Burton
18 Aug 2018Burton1 - 0Doncaster
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away4.7521.1%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.0025.0%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.7058.8%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.7955.9%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.9950.2%09 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 17:10 UTC