| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 61.2% | 66% | -5.0% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 55.1% | 44.9% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 68.7% | 31.3% |
| logistic | 60.7% | 39.3% |
| Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | Samuele Pieri | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1583 | 1500 |
| Surface Elo | 1583 | 1500 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.63 | 1.17 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 03 Oct | H | Matthew William Donald | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Oct | A | Enrico Dalla Valle | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Jay Clarke | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Sciahbasi, Matteo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Samuele Pieri | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Vitaliy Sachko | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Oct | H | Carlos Taberner | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Laurent Lokoli | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Andrej Martin | 1 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | 0 - 2 | Samuele Pieri |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | 2 - 0 | Samuele Pieri |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | 2 - 0 | Samuele Pieri |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.45 | 40.8% | 04 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.51 | 66.2% | 04 Oct 06:15 |