| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 63.2% | 69% | -6.3% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 34.4% | 65.6% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 37.8% | 62.1% |
| logistic | 36.3% | 63.7% |
| Gonzalo Bueno | Lautaro Midon | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1603 | 1712 |
| Surface Elo | 1603 | 1712 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.71 | 2.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.43 | 1.42 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 04 Nov | H | Eduardo Ribeiro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Nov | A | Daniel Elahi Galan | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Nov | A | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 0 - 2 | L |
| 02 Nov | H | Lautaro Midon | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Nov | A | Eduardo Ribeiro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Nov | H | Barrios Vera, Marcelo Tomas | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Nov | A | Lucas Andrade Da Silva | 1 - 0 | W |
| 02 Nov | A | Gonzalo Bueno | 0 - 2 | L |
| 02 Nov | H | Tomas Barrios Vera | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Nov | H | Lucas Andrade Da Silva | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Nov 2026 | Gonzalo Bueno | 2 - 0 | Lautaro Midon |
| 06 Apr 2026 | Gonzalo Bueno | 2 - 1 | Lautaro Midon |
| 16 Mar 2026 | Gonzalo Bueno | 1 - 2 | Lautaro Midon |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.47 | 68.0% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.55 | 39.2% | 06 Nov 06:15 |