OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-17

🎾 WTA Wuhan, China Women Singles · Saturday 17 October 2026, 09:00 UTC · finished

Sonay Kartal 2.40 2 - 0 1.80 Jelena Ostapenko

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	61.1%	57%	+3.6%	✓ hit

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
markov	54.5%	45.5%
poisson	37.1%	35.2%
xgboost	61.8%	38.1%
logistic	58.0%	42.0%

Inputs the models saw

	Sonay Kartal	Jelena Ostapenko
Elo (pre-match)	1710	1657
Surface Elo	1710	1657
Form, last 5 (PPG)	2.40	1.80
Form trend	-0.30	-0.60
Season points per game	2.50	2.00
Season goals for / game	1.67	1.50
Season goals against / game	0.33	0.83
Rest days	2	2
Head-to-head (last 10)	1 W	1 W · 0 D

Sonay Kartal: last 5

15 Oct	A	Jasmine Paolini	2 - 0	W
14 Oct	H	Belinda Bencic	2 - 0	W
12 Oct	A	Anhelina Kalinina	2 - 0	W
12 Oct	A	Maja Chwalinska	1 - 2	L
12 Oct	A	Jelena Ostapenko	2 - 0	W

Jelena Ostapenko: last 5

15 Oct	A	Leylah Fernandez	2 - 1	W
13 Oct	A	Daria Kasatkina	2 - 0	W
12 Oct	H	Sonay Kartal	0 - 2	L
12 Oct	A	Diana Shnaider	2 - 0	W
12 Oct	H	Leylah Fernandez	2 - 1	W

Head to head

12 Oct 2026	Jelena Ostapenko	0 - 2	Sonay Kartal
30 Jun 2025	Jelena Ostapenko	1 - 2	Sonay Kartal
23 Jun 2025	Jelena Ostapenko	2 - 0	Sonay Kartal

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
SportyBet	1X2	away	2.15	46.5%	17 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	1.74	57.5%	17 Oct 06:15

Generated 2026-10-30 18:18 UTC