| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 53.6% | 57% | -3.2% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 36.1% | 48.0% |
| xgboost | 52.5% | 46.5% |
| logistic | 49.7% | 50.3% |
| Calgary Flames | Toronto Maple Leafs | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1451 | 1450 |
| Surface Elo | 1451 | 1450 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 0.40 | 0.54 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.30 | 3.85 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.90 | 3.15 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 4 W · 0 D |
| 25 Oct | H | Detroit Red Wings | 4 - 1 | W |
| 23 Oct | H | Minnesota Wild | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Carolina Hurricanes | 3 - 2 | W |
| 16 Oct | A | Vegas Golden Knights | 2 - 6 | L |
| 14 Oct | A | Anaheim Ducks | 4 - 2 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Edmonton Oilers | 7 - 2 | W |
| 22 Oct | H | New York Rangers | 5 - 4 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Columbus Blue Jackets | 6 - 2 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | San Jose Sharks | 3 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | New York Islanders | 1 - 4 | L |
| 03 Feb 2026 | Calgary Flames | 2 - 4 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
| 28 Oct 2025 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 4 - 3 | Calgary Flames |
| 17 Mar 2025 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 6 - 2 | Calgary Flames |
| 05 Feb 2025 | Calgary Flames | 3 - 6 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | home | 2.18 | 45.9% | 26 Oct 20:20 |
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | away | 1.76 | 56.8% | 26 Oct 20:20 |