| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 79.1% | 68% | +11.5% |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 59.7% | 40.3% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 78.9% | 21.0% |
| logistic | 80.0% | 20.0% |
| Lorenzo Musetti | Ugo Humbert | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 2052 | 1817 |
| Surface Elo | 2052 | 1817 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.50 | 1.33 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.75 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.58 | 1.22 |
| Rest days | 2 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W 路 0 D |
| 10 Nov | H | Toby Samuel | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Nov | H | Luca Van Assche | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Nov | H | Luca Van Assche | 1 - 2 | L |
| 04 Nov | A | Alexander Zverev | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Nov | A | Alexander Zverev | 2 - 0 | W |
| 11 Nov | A | Borna Gojo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 09 Nov | A | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Nov | A | Matteo Berrettini | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Nov | A | Matteo Berrettini | 0 - 2 | L |
| 02 Nov | H | Botic Van De Zandschulp | 2 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.75 | 36.4% | 12 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.48 | 67.6% | 12 Nov 06:15 |