| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 58.3% | 67% | -8.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 57.1% | 42.9% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 61.4% | 38.6% |
| logistic | 56.8% | 43.2% |
| Jacob Fearnley | Hugo Gaston | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1811 | 1740 |
| Surface Elo | 1811 | 1740 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 2 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 20 Oct | A | Hugo Gaston | 2 - 0 | W |
| 18 Oct | H | Damir Dzumhur | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Luca Nardi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 16 Oct | H | Maxim Mrva | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Oct | H | Jan Kumstat | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Jacob Fearnley | 0 - 2 | L |
| 16 Oct | H | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Daniel Jade | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Pierre Hugues Herbert | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct 2026 | Hugo Gaston | 0 - 2 | Jacob Fearnley |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.40 | 41.7% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.60 | 62.5% | 20 Oct 06:15 |