| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 65.9% | 79% | -12.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 36.3% | 63.7% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 30.8% | 69.1% |
| logistic | 26.6% | 73.4% |
| Corentin Moutet | Tommy Paul | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1741 | 2012 |
| Surface Elo | 1741 | 2012 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 0.83 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 23 Oct | H | Tommy Paul | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Oct | H | Felix Balshaw | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Oct | H | Felix Balshaw | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Ugo Humbert | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Ugo Humbert | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Oct | A | Corentin Moutet | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Oct | A | Benjamin Bonzi | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Oct | A | Benjamin Bonzi | 2 - 1 | W |
| 16 Oct | A | Daniil Medvedev | 1 - 2 | L |
| 16 Oct | A | Daniil Medvedev | 1 - 2 | L |
| 23 Oct 2026 | Corentin Moutet | 1 - 2 | Tommy Paul |
| 18 Feb 2026 | Corentin Moutet | 1 - 2 | Tommy Paul |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.29 | 77.5% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.80 | 26.3% | 23 Oct 06:15 |