OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-18

🎾 tennis_atp_shanghai_masters · Sunday 18 October 2026, 08:30 UTC · scheduled

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 3.00 08:30 3.00 Rafael Jodar

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	53.7%	47%	+7.2%

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
poisson	37.1%	35.2%
xgboost	54.0%	46.0%
logistic	51.5%	48.5%
markov	abstained: unknown match format (best_of=0)

Inputs the models saw

	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	Rafael Jodar
Elo (pre-match)	2043	2033
Surface Elo	2043	2033
Form, last 5 (PPG)	3.00	3.00
Form trend	0.00	0.00
Season points per game	1.50	1.50
Season goals for / game	1.50	1.50
Season goals against / game	1.50	1.50
Rest days	1	1
Head-to-head (last 10)	0 W	0 W · 0 D

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: last 5

18 Oct	H	Rafael Jodar	2 - 1	W
17 Oct	A	Alexander Zverev	2 - 1	W
17 Oct	H	Alexander Zverev	2 - 1	W
15 Oct	A	Arthur Gea	1 - 0	W
15 Oct	H	Arthur Gea	1 - 0	W

Rafael Jodar: last 5

18 Oct	A	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	1 - 2	L
17 Oct	H	Daniil Medvedev	2 - 0	W
17 Oct	A	Daniil Medvedev	2 - 0	W
16 Oct	H	Casper Ruud	2 - 1	W
16 Oct	A	Casper Ruud	2 - 1	W

Head to head

18 Oct 2026

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

2 - 1

Rafael Jodar

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
1xBet	h2h	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2.17	46.1%	18 Oct 06:01
1xBet	h2h	Rafael Jodar	1.72	58.1%	18 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2.10	47.6%	18 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Rafael Jodar	1.73	57.8%	18 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2.26	44.2%	18 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Rafael Jodar	1.77	56.5%	18 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2.30	43.5%	18 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Rafael Jodar	1.79	55.9%	18 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2.20	45.5%	18 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Rafael Jodar	1.71	58.5%	18 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2.15	46.5%	18 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Rafael Jodar	1.71	58.5%	18 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2.10	47.6%	18 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Rafael Jodar	1.74	57.5%	18 Oct 06:01
GTbets	h2h	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2.16	46.3%	18 Oct 06:01
GTbets	h2h	Rafael Jodar	1.70	58.8%	18 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2.15	46.5%	18 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Rafael Jodar	1.73	57.8%	18 Oct 06:01
Marathon Bet	h2h	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2.15	46.5%	18 Oct 06:01
Marathon Bet	h2h	Rafael Jodar	1.71	58.5%	18 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2.28	43.9%	18 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Rafael Jodar	1.77	56.5%	18 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2.30	43.5%	18 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Rafael Jodar	1.78	56.2%	18 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2.15	46.5%	18 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Rafael Jodar	1.71	58.5%	18 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2.22	45.1%	18 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Rafael Jodar	1.74	57.5%	18 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2.04	49.0%	18 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Rafael Jodar	1.65	60.6%	18 Oct 06:01
SportyBet	1X2	away	1.74	57.5%	18 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	2.15	46.5%	18 Oct 06:15
Tipico	h2h	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2.15	46.5%	18 Oct 06:01
Tipico	h2h	Rafael Jodar	1.67	59.9%	18 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2.15	46.5%	18 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Rafael Jodar	1.68	59.5%	18 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2.15	46.5%	18 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Rafael Jodar	1.73	57.8%	18 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2.15	46.5%	18 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Rafael Jodar	1.73	57.8%	18 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2.10	47.6%	18 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Rafael Jodar	1.73	57.8%	18 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2.15	46.5%	18 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Rafael Jodar	1.74	57.5%	18 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2.10	47.6%	18 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Rafael Jodar	1.72	58.1%	18 Oct 06:01

Generated 2026-10-30 15:03 UTC