| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 56.1% | 58% | -2.0% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 79.9% | 83% | -3.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 72.5% | 76% | -3.1% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.9% | 68% | -8.2% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.7% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 59.0% | 21.6% | 19.4% |
| xgboost | 63.9% | 16.6% | 19.5% |
| logistic | 64.5% | 21.6% | 13.9% |
| Southend | Fylde | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1554 | 1410 |
| Surface Elo | 1554 | 1410 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 3.00 | 0.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| Rest days | 2 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 30 Sep | A | Eastleigh | 1 - 1 | D |
| 30 Sep | A | Eastleigh | 1 - 1 | D |
| 26 Sep | H | Barrow | 2 - 4 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Barrow | 2 - 4 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Gateshead | 6 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Carlisle | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | H | Carlisle | 0 - 2 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Boston Utd | 1 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Boston Utd | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Altrincham | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Jan 2025 | Southend | 2 - 0 | Fylde |
| 17 Sep 2024 | Fylde | 2 - 1 | Southend |
| 13 Apr 2024 | Fylde | 0 - 2 | Southend |
| 23 Sep 2023 | Southend | 1 - 2 | Fylde |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.00 | 25.0% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.00 | 25.0% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.72 | 58.1% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.47 | 68.0% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.55 | 39.2% | 02 Oct 06:15 |