| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 44.3% | 47% | -2.2% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 73.5% | 77% | -3.8% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 57.2% | 64% | -7.0% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.0% | 52% | +14.0% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.0% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 30.7% | 28.4% | 40.8% |
| xgboost | 31.1% | 32.5% | 36.4% |
| logistic | 31.7% | 27.3% | 41.0% |
| Tondela | Alverca | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1423 | 1536 |
| Surface Elo | 1423 | 1536 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | -0.70 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 5.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 154 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 1 D |
| 10 Oct | H | SCU Torreense | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Imortal DC | 5 - 1 | W |
| 16 May | A | Arouca | 1 - 3 | L |
| 11 May | H | Moreirense | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 May | A | Casa Pia | 1 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Famalicao | 4 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | FC Oliveira do Hospital | 1 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Rio Ave | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Rio Ave | 1 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | Nacional | 3 - 1 | W |
| 13 Feb 2026 | Tondela | 1 - 1 | Alverca |
| 12 Sep 2025 | Alverca | 1 - 0 | Tondela |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.15 | 46.5% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.40 | 29.4% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.25 | 30.8% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.92 | 52.1% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.85 | 54.0% | 18 Oct 06:15 |