| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 67.1% | 57% | +10.4% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 89.6% | 82% | +7.8% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 85.9% | 75% | +11.0% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.5% | 58% | +6.3% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 48.7% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 45.5% | 27.2% | 27.2% |
| xgboost | 65.4% | 22.9% | 11.6% |
| logistic | 56.3% | 24.8% | 18.9% |
| Leeds | Crystal Palace | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1761 | 1652 |
| Surface Elo | 1761 | 1652 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.40 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 0.75 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.75 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.75 | 2.75 |
| Rest days | 5 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 3 W · 2 D |
| 14 Sep | H | Newcastle | 4 - 1 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Brighton | 1 - 1 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | Brentford | 1 - 1 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | Nottingham Forest | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 May | A | West Ham | 0 - 3 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Ipswich | 2 - 3 | L |
| 05 Sep | A | Fulham | 3 - 2 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | Manchester City | 1 - 4 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | Everton | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 May | H | Arsenal | 1 - 2 | L |
| 15 Mar 2026 | Crystal Palace | 0 - 0 | Leeds |
| 20 Dec 2025 | Leeds | 4 - 1 | Crystal Palace |
| 09 Apr 2023 | Leeds | 1 - 5 | Crystal Palace |
| 09 Oct 2022 | Crystal Palace | 2 - 1 | Leeds |
| 25 Apr 2022 | Crystal Palace | 0 - 0 | Leeds |
| 30 Nov 2021 | Leeds | 1 - 0 | Crystal Palace |
| 08 Feb 2021 | Leeds | 2 - 0 | Crystal Palace |
| 07 Nov 2020 | Crystal Palace | 4 - 1 | Leeds |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 5.00 | 20.0% | 20 Sep 14:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.00 | 25.0% | 20 Sep 14:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.65 | 60.6% | 20 Sep 14:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.73 | 57.8% | 20 Sep 14:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 20 Sep 14:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.79 | 20.9% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.12 | 24.3% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.76 | 56.8% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.68 | 59.5% | 20 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.25 | 44.4% | 20 Sep 06:16 |