| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 59.2% | 57% | +2.1% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 51.1% | 48.9% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 39.6% | 60.3% |
| logistic | 37.9% | 62.1% |
| Daria Kasatkina | Jelena Ostapenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1526 | 1622 |
| Surface Elo | 1526 | 1622 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.50 | 1.25 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 12 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 4 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | H | Jelena Ostapenko | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | A | Paula Badosa | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Paula Badosa | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Sonay Kartal | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Diana Shnaider | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Leylah Fernandez | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Jessica Pegula | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Daria Kasatkina | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Daria Kasatkina | 0 - 2 | Jelena Ostapenko |
| 08 Jan 2024 | Daria Kasatkina | 0 - 2 | Jelena Ostapenko |
| 08 May 2023 | Daria Kasatkina | 1 - 2 | Jelena Ostapenko |
| 28 Jun 2021 | Daria Kasatkina | 1 - 2 | Jelena Ostapenko |
| 21 Jun 2021 | Daria Kasatkina | 1 - 2 | Jelena Ostapenko |
| 28 Aug 2017 | Daria Kasatkina | 2 - 0 | Jelena Ostapenko |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.73 | 57.8% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.15 | 46.5% | 13 Oct 06:15 |