| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 66.3% | 72% | -5.7% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 39.8% | 60.2% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 35.0% | 64.9% |
| logistic | 32.5% | 67.5% |
| Maxime Chazal | Joel Schwaerzler | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1407 | 1618 |
| Surface Elo | 1407 | 1618 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 8 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 21 Sep | A | Jonas Forejtek | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Joel Schwaerzler | 2 - 1 | W |
| 14 Sep | A | Alex Barrena | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | H | Titouan Droguet | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Jul | A | Emilien Demanet | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Maxime Chazal | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Sep | H | Luca Potenza | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Sep | H | Max Basing | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Aug | H | Kenta Miyoshi | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Aug | A | Andy Andrade | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Joel Schwaerzler | 1 - 2 | Maxime Chazal |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.35 | 74.1% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.05 | 32.8% | 22 Sep 06:15 |